South of the border U.S. existing home sales dropped 8.4% month over month in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.91 million units. This is the weakest since December 2023, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Sales decreased 4.4% year over year with broad-based weakness across regions. However, on the price front, January’s median sale price was a record $396,800.
U.S. jobless claims fell less than expected last week, down 5K from 232,000 to 227,000. “Jobless claims suggest that the labor market remains just as subdued as last year, casting further doubt over the sustainability of January’s reported jump in payrolls,” noted Samuel Tombs, Pantheon Macroeconomics.​
​Canada’s #1 export, oil, slipped this past week due to a weaker demand outlook for the year. WTI crude closed down 3% to $62.69. Meanwhile, metals continued falling with gold sinking below $5000, and silver dropping 11%. Stocks fell as well with a tech sell-off sparked by worries about AI-driven disruption. The TSX Composite also fell.​ ​
The next Bank of Canada meeting is on March 18 and the odds of a rate cut are very low (less than 10%). The next Federal Reserve meeting is also on March 18 and they have similar odds of a rate cut. The odds of a further prime rate cut this year appear to be seemingly low. The Bank of Canada has already indicated that they feel that inflation has dropped and employment numbers are good. We sense that the reality is vastly different for the majority of the population. Inflation on most goods still seems high while the job/tariff situation is still worrisome. We hope at some point that the numbers will reflect the truth of what most Canadians are going through and then the Bank of Canada can act accordingly.
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